ENERGY INFORMATION ADMINISTRATION PREDICTIONS (ELECTRICITY YEAR 2000) -

1. Net generation versus sales to ultimate consumers. It appears that sales to ultimate consumers as a percentage of net generation declined from 89.6% in 1998 to 86.8% in 1999, which might indicate inefficiencies. Net generation grew by 3.1% and sales to ultimate consumers declined by 0.1%. Growth in net generation is attributable to nonutility power producers, while net generation from IOUs, munis and co-ops actually declined by 1.2%. (U.S. EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2000)

2. Forecast. EIA predicts a 1.3% increase in electricity generation from 1997 to 2020, and a 1.4% increase in electricity sales during that period, with only a 1.3% difference between generation and sales. I am not sure if the sales forecasted are the same as "sales to ultimate consumers" as defined by EIA. (U.S. EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2000)

3. Trades. In 1996, 73% of sales to ultimate consumers were part of "a wholesale electricity trade transaction which linked together the contract path from source generation to end-use consumption." (U.S. EIA, Electric Trade in the U.S. 1996, December 1998)

Forecast. Yet, EIA predicts a 2.8% decline in electricity trade from 1997 to 2020. (U.S. EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2000)
(ELECTRICITY 2002)-
Wind capacity in US was 2.42 GW in US which will grow to 7.65 GW in 2010 and 9.06 GW by 2020. Solar thermal electricity was 0.33 GW in 2001. Geothermal was 2.85 GW in 2000 to 5.32 GW in 2010 and 34.71 GW in 2020. Solar PV is 0.01 GW Hydropower in 2000 was 79.29 GW and is expected to rise to 79.9 GW in 2020. Biomass electric (not MSW) is 1.39 GW in 2000 and expected to grow to 4.3 GW in 2010 and 15.32 GW in 2020. www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/supplement/sup_elec.pdf. Ethanol fuels produced in 58 US plants in 2001 at 2.3 billion gallons per year. Another 16 ethanol plants are under construction which will produce an additional 430 million gallons by 2003.